Welcome to my research page. Here, you can find an overview of my ongoing projects, published work, and areas of interest. I specialize in international relations and quantitative research methods. My ongoing research covers five main themes:
I also conduct survey experiments. Much of my work examines East Asia’s contemporary international relations using statistical and computational methods.
Interdependence Composition, Conflict and Cooperation
This project (under review, ISA2024, APSA 2024, JSQPS 2024) explores how the compositional structure of trade interdependence affects cooperation and conflict between states. Using detailed commodity-level trade data and new measures of interdependence, it links trade composition to patterns of interstate relations captured in millions of political event records. Findings show that compositional structures have direction- and domain-specific effects.
Coercion by Proxy: A Network Analysis of China’s Economic Statecraft
This project (ongoing) examines how states exert economic pressure indirectly when direct trade dependence is low. It focuses on China’s restrictions on Lithuania after it welcomed a Taiwan Representative Office. Network models trace how trade with third countries can be used as a coercive tool.
Are GSCs Vital for China’s Leaders?
This project (published, ISA 2022, APSA 2023) examines how China’s leadership has benefited from the country’s integration into global supply chains, identifies the growing challenges that accompany those benefits, and categorizes the leadership’s economic survival models into three groups. A discussion connects each model to the future of China’s interdependence with the US and the rest of the World.
Rallying-‘round-the-Product? Consumer Responses to Economic Sanctions in Taiwan
This project (under review, ISA 2024, APSA 2025) explores how citizens respond when adversaries sanction domestic goods, focusing on China’s 2021–2023 sanctions on Taiwanese fruit and seafood. Using synthetic control method by examinign millions of sales records, it measures the size and duration of “buycott” effects. Results show short-term surges in purchases, especially in cities, which faded as sanctions expanded.
Consumers as Commercial Shields: Japanese Responses to Chinese Economic Sanctions
This project (ongoing, ISA Virtual 2025) investigates Japan’s consumer response to China’s 2023–2025 seafood import restrictions. It combines surveys with market and household spending data to track the effects of government-led buycott campaigns. Early evidence suggests short-term consumption boosts, shaped by region and motivation.
Do Global Supply Chains Follow Allies’ Flags?
This study (under review, ISA2024, APSA 2024, MPSA 2023) examines how allied countries adjusted trade during the U.S.–China trade war. Using counterfactual analysis on two decades of disaggregated export data, it compares NATO members with other close partners. Results show NATO countries increased exports to the U.S. but did not cut exports to China.
The Illusion of Foreign Capital: Estimating Round-Trip FDI Using Firm-Level Data
This project (ongoing, APSA2025, IPES 2025) measures how much investment labeled as “foreign” in China is actually domestic capital routed through other countries. Using a novel firm-level dataset and machine-learning models, it identifies likely round-tripped investments. Preliminary results suggest up to 60% of “foreign” firms may be Chinese-owned.
LLMs as Firm-Level Databases: An Experimental Comparison between ChatGPT and Deepseek
This project (ongoing) tests whether large language models can accurately retrieve firm-level data for political economy research. It compares two LLMs with an industry-standard corporate database across multiple firm attributes. Accuracy is benchmarked under different locations, times, and model versions.
Does Economic Security Legislation Follow the Flag?
This project (ongoing) uses text analysis to identify U.S. Congressional bills from 2012–2024 targeting China and Japan. It leverages text and machine-powered content analysis to classify each bill as punitive or rewarding and tests whether domestic politics or geopolitical factors better explain legislative patterns and uses a computational approach to test hypotheses on the drivers of these legislation.
Principle or Partisanship: The Relationship Between Exposure to Moral Courage and Support for Democratic Values
This study (under review) tests whether witnessing moral courage strengthens democratic attitudes. Two survey experiments in the U.S. and South Korea show that moral courage exposure boosts support for democratic norms. Effects persist despite high levels of political polarization.
Microfoundations of Commercial Peace: Evidence from Japan and the U.S.
This project (ongoing) uses survey experiments in both countries to test how trade affects public opinion toward partners. Respondents receive information about trade relationships and then answer questions on nationalism, vulnerability, and policy preferences. The design allows direct testing of the social transformation mechanism (Handelsgeist) behind commercial peace theory.