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N. Uras Demir

PhD Candidate,
Department of Political Science
University of California, Irvine 

About me

I am a PhD candidate at the University of California Irvine's Department of Political Science and a Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Predoctoral Research Fellow at the University of Tokyo's Institute of Social Science. I specialize in international relations and research methodology. My dissertation research explores the relationship between contemporary interdependence, conflict, and cooperation by focusing on global supply chains. I was formerly a Smith Richardson Foundation World Politics and Statecraft Fellow and a UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation Dissertation Fellow.

I taught Political Analysis and Introduction to International Relations at the University of California, Irvine, and worked as a teaching assistant for numerous courses, including the year-long Statistics and Probability sequence. I was a Pedagogical Fellow and a two-time Teaching Apprentice at UC Irvine's Division of Teaching Excellence and Innovation. I am also interested in conducting pedagogical research.


Beyond my academic responsibilities, I am interested in data science and visualization. I use R for my work, and I have experience teaching it. I also have experience with Python, SQL, and Tableau. I received my MSc from Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commericales du Nord (EDHEC) in Lille, France, in Global Business with a concentration on International Finance, and my joint BSc in International Relations from the State University of New York at Binghamton and Middle East Technical University in Ankara, Turkey. My native language is Turkish, I am conversational in French, and I have been studying Japanese.


National Power and the Structure of Global Supply Chain Trade

​In my dissertation research, I explore why contemporary interdependence incentivizes cooperation for some states while exacerbating conflict for others. I argue that where interdependence is significant, the composition of intermediate good flows shapes the outcomes. Using clustering algorithms, I categorize intermediate goods based on universal attributes at the commodity level to demonstrate compositional differences across interdependent states. Additionally, I develop an index that quantifies interstate conflict and cooperation based on event data. I demonstrate the causal mechanism using a mixed-methods research design that entails multilevel modeling and case studies focusing on East Asia. An abridged version of the quantitative analysis is currently under review. 


Are Global Supply Chains Vital for China’s Leaders?

In this co-authored chapter, we begin by exploring China's outward looking political economy model and the role global supply chains play in it. We then identify mounting challenges to China's supply chain activities and identify three ideal-typical views within China's leadership towards the GSCs. We argue that the balance between these views will have significant consequences for the future of global interdependence. In Etel Solingen (Ed.) 2021. Geopolitics, Supply Chains, and International Relations of East Asia. Cambridge University Press.

Image by Christian Lue

Do Allies' Supply Chains Also Follow the Flag?

In this co-authored project, we reexamine the "trade follows the flag" hypothesis in the context of intermediate goods trade. We suggest that ally-shoring may naturally emerge following significant trade disputes between two adversaries. Treating the US-China trade war as an intervention in a quasi-experimental setting, we estimate counterfactual trends in intermediate goods outflows from third parties--the US's military allies--to the the US and China. Our results show that military alliances have the potential to shape intermediate goods outflows in times of crises. This paper is currently under revision for the Review of International Political Economy.

Image by Venti Views

Impact of Political Institutions on Intermediate Goods Trade Amidst Rising Protectionism

In this study, I examine how strong institutions affect intermediate goods trade in the context of growing protectionism driven by economic security concerns. I suggest that firms might avoid or exit countries with robust political institutions and strict protectionist policies due to the risk of rapid implementation of unforeseen trade restrictions. My analysis indicates that the combination of high institutional quality and protectionist trade policy poses challenges for maintaining supply chains.

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Diversity in Political Science Pedagogical Research: A Bayesian Estimation of Identity

In this co-authored piece, we focus on the evolution of inclusivity in political science pedagogical research using an original dataset on journal publications between 2005 and 2020. We carry out an analysis of citation networks to explore diversity using Bayesian estimation.

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The Role of Games in International Relations Education: Preference, Learning, and Retention

In this co-authored piece, we utilize teaching-as-research to study the effects of competitive and collaborative games in international relations education. We introduce novel games for undergraduate students to play in the classroom that relate to the assumptions and expectations of realist and liberal theories. We utilize a post-pre survey design to estimate effect of the games for student preference towards courses with games, and efficacy of the games for learning, and retention.



Political Analysis

How do political scientists carry out research? This R-integrated course aims to introduce students to the fundamentals of computational political science. The course covers the basics of research design, data gathering, the use of R for data wrangling, visualization, and analysis, and the application of basic quantitative methods to answer research questions. While this course is primarily designed for political science majors, the practical and transferable research skills taught in this course will be applicable across all social science majors (and beyond the campus).

[Click here for the syllabus]

[Click here for the student evaluations]

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Introduction to International Relations

What are the causes of change in the international system? This course explores how states and nonstate actors interact with each other. It examines the key theories, concepts, and debates in the field and discusses contemporary global issues such as trade, technology, human rights, and climate change. It also explores how globalization shapes the behavior of states and other actors. This course provides a foundation for students to pursue their studies in international relations.

[Click here for the syllabus]

[Click here for the student evaluations]

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Teaching Assistant

I served as a teaching assistant for ten quarters for the following courses at UC Irvine: year-long Statistics and Probability sequence (twice), Computer-Based Research in Social Sciences, Political Science Research Design, Introduction to International Relations, and Introduction to Economics.

[Student evaluations: Statistics and Probability 10A]

[Student evaluations: Statistics and Probability 10B]

[Student evaluations: Statistics and Probability 10C]

[Student evaluations: Computer Based Social Science Research 3A]

[Student evaluations: Introduction to International Relations 41A]

[Student evaluations: Political Science Research Design 6A]

[Student evaluations: Introduction to Economics 1A]

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